For example, if a guru said investors should be bullish on U. stocks over the year, and the S&P 500 index was up by just a few percent, they judged the call incorrect (because the long-term average annual return has been much higher).
Finally, they graded complex forecasts with elements proving both correct and incorrect as both right and wrong (not half right and half wrong).
For investors who haven't learned that forecasts should only be considered as entertainment, or what Jane Bryant Quinn called investment porn, they actually have negative value because forecasts can cause them to stray from well-developed plans.
The latest piece of evidence illustrating the futility of forecasts comes from CXO Advisory Group.
And consider a new report discovered by this morning. Including apps like Tinder, the market for online dating has expanded four times in the last five years.